In what seems to be the only remaining reason I use this blog – here’s my annual Oscar thoughts (2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014). As usual: awards are silly – now let’s take them really seriously.
Weird year to predict winners. The majority of categories have two potential winners. Suspect I’ll end up with 66% success with 100% if I could swap in my second place. So many close calls.
Best Picture
Will win: Everything Everywhere All At Once
Could win: Banshees of Inisherin
Should win: Everything Everywhere All At Once
If only… Aftersun
A return to an exciting set of nominations. My ballot would read: Everything Everywhere All at Once, Banshees of Inisherin, Tár, Women Talking, The Fabelmans, Triangle of Sadness, All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, Top Gun: Maverick, Elvis. Would love to live in a world where I could add films like Aftersun, Bones And All, & The Northman and any of the documentaries that have been in the conversation this year.
Best Director
Will win: Daniels (Everywhere Everything All At Once)
Could win: Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
Should win: Todd Field (TAR)
If only… Sarah Polley (Women Talking)
Best Actress
Will win: Cate Blanchett (TAR)
Could win: Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
Should win: Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
If only… Viola Davis (The Woman King)
Best Actor
Will win: Austin Butler (Elvis)
Could win: Brendon Fraser (The Whale)
Should win: Colin Farrell (Banshees of Inisherin)
If only… Timothee Chamalet (Bones & All)
Best Supporting Actress
Will win: Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
Could win: Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
Should win: Kerry Condon (Banshees of Inisherin)
If only… Janelle Monáe (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery)
Legacy Oscar for Bassett? I think anti-Marvel bias will play out here. Or a Jamie Lee Curtis cheerleader Oscar for her work getting EEAAO to this level of recognition? She’s good and a lot of people in the academy who are part of the nepotism machine will vote for her. A shame as Kerry Condon’s work in Banshees is outstanding. Hoping she comes through if the two EEAAO nominees split the vote.
Best Supporting Actor
Will win: Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
Could win: Brendan Gleeson (Banshees of Inisherin)
Should win: Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
If only… Pedro Pascal (The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent)
Best Original Screenplay
Will win: Everything Everywhere All At Once
Could win: Banshees of Inisherin
Should win: Banshees of Inisherin
If only… Aftersun
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will win: Women Talking
Could win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Should win: Women Talking
If only… The Wonder
Best International Picture
Will win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Could win: Argentina, 1985
Should win: The Quiet Girl
If only… Corsage
Best Documentary Feature
Will win: Navalny
Could win: Fire of Love
Should win: All That Breathes
If only… Moonage Daydream
This win is similar to ‘My Octopus Teacher’. The greatest filmmaking on display here is ‘All That Breathes’ – sad to see this category has gone a bit more populist in recent years.
Best Animated Feature
Will win: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Could win: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Should win: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
If only… The Bad Guys
Best Cinematography
Will win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Could win: Elvis
Should win: TAR
If only… Athena
Best Editing
Will win: Everything Everywhere All At Once
Could win: Top Gun: Maverick
Should win: Everything Everywhere All At Once
If only… Aftersun
Best Production Design
Will win: Elvis
Could win: Babylon
Should win: Babylon
If only… After Yang
Best Costume Design
Will win: Elvis
Could win: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Should win: Babylon
If only… Corsage
Best Make-Up & Hair
Will win: Elvis
Could win: The Whale
Should win: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
If only… Blonde
Dismayed that this category continues to reward fat suits. This category is fast becoming a joke. Make up artists and hair stylists deserve better.
Best Score
Will win: Babylon
Could win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Should win: Babylon
If only… The Wonder
Best Original Song
Will win: “Naatu Naatu” RRR
Could win: “Lift Me Up” Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Should win: “This is a Life” Everything Everywhere All At Once
If only… “New Body Rumba” White Noise
Best Visual Effects
Will win: Avatar: The Way of Water
Could win: Top Gun: Maverick
Should win: Avatar: The Way of Water
If only… Everything Everywhere All At Once
Best Sound
Will win: Top Gun: Maverick
Could win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Should win: Avatar: The Way of Water
If only… Thirteen Lives
Best Live Action Short
Will win: ‘Le Pupille’
Could win: ‘An Irish Goodbye’
Best Animation Short
Will win: ‘The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse’
Could win: ‘My Year of Dicks’
Have seen four of these films and ‘An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It’ is exceptional. Love that film. Dismayed it hasn’t been picked up in more chatter and hence not predicting it.
Best Documentary Short
Will win: ‘Stranger At the Gate’
Could win: ‘The Elephant Whisperers’
‘Haulout’ is the best film in this bunch. ‘Stranger at the Gate’ is a terrible film. It reduces a complex issue into a one flavour lollypop, and I’m convinced the Academy will suck on it.
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