Another traditional Oscars post (2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014), finally with a year where the nominated films are largely films I’m genuinely excited about being part of the awards conversation. New blogpost format this year: as my cynicism about the Oscars deepens, so does my interest in picking the award winners. It’s a daily battle.
Best Picture
Will win: 1917
Could win: Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood
Should win: Parasite
If only… Uncut Gems
Parasite is basically a perfect film. I would love to see it win. The two way battle between 1917 and Parasite is missing the point. I think preferential voting will discount it, in the same way as Netflix’s Irishman and Marriage Story are counted out. It will be too low on too many ballots for those who don’t like the idea of it winning both International Feature and Best Picture. I appreciate 1917, the stunt it pulls off is incredible, but it has well documented flaws. My ballot would read (from 1 to 9): Parasite; The Irishman; Little Women; Marriage Story; 1917; Jojo Rabbit; Ford V Ferarri; Once Upon a Time… In Hollywood; Joker.
Best Director
Will win: Sam Mendes
Could win: Bong Joon Ho
Should win: Bong Joon Ho
If only… Greta Gerwig
Also want to shout to Marielle Heller, Lulu Wang, Alma Har’el, and Melina Matsoukas who good have joined Greta Gerwig as an incredible line up of nominees for this category.
Best Actress
Will win: Renee Zellweger
Could win: Scarlett Johansson
Should win: Saosire Roanan
If only… Lupito Ny’ongo (Us)
Upset is unlikely. Not a huge fan of Zellweger performance largely because of the film – note that the scene with the two gay men which a lot of reviewers has praised, I absolutely hated. The stereotypes it leans on here are so reductive, when it would have been so easy to create more meaningful characters. Also Ny’ongo is incredible.
Best Actor
Will win: Joaquin Phoenix
Could win: Adam Driver
Should win: Antonio Banderas
If only… Eddie Murphy (Dolamite is My Name)
Almost threw in Adam Sandler (as I’m sure many did) however, have to give more of the credit for that performance to the Sadfie brothers. Eddie Murphy holds together Dolamite more impressively than Phoenix; he should have been in the mix.
Best Supporting Actress
Will win: Laura Dern
Could win: Scarlett Johansen
Should win: Laura Dern
If only… Shuzhen Zhao (The Farewell)
I don’t buy the Jennifer Lopez stub business – she was good in a average film. Laura Dern is sensational in a film full of incredible supporting performances. Florence Pugh will win an Oscar in the future.
Best Supporting Actor
Will win: Brad Pitt
Could win: Al Pacino
Should win: Joe Pesci
If only… Kang-ho Song (Parasite)
I’m not sure if there is a better performance in any of the categories than Joe Pesci’s.
Best Original Screenplay
Will win: Parasite
Could win: Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood
Should win: Marriage Story
If only… Booksmart
Picking a Parasite upset of Hollywood here. Why not?
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will win: Jojo Rabbit
Could win: Little Women
Should win: Little Women
If only… The Farewell
The Jojo Rabbit love is curious. I really liked it, but I’m not sure how – given all the high profile issues with the film – that it has managed to stay so strong in the awards conversation.
Best International Picture
Will win: Parasite
Could win: Pain and Glory
Should win: Parasite
If only… Monos
Best Documentary Feature
Will win: American Factory
Could win: Honeyland
Should win: For Sama
If only… Diego Maradonna
Shame that The Cave and For Sama were both nominated, as I’d love to see For Sama win but suspect the votes will split making it unlikely. Obama factor reigns forth here. Another incredibly strong year for documentaries. The short list contain many other potential winners. Can’t wait for the year that a documentary gets a nod for editing or another artistic category.
Best Animated Feature
Will win: Toy Story 4
Could win: Klaus
Should win: Toy Story 4
If only… Weathering With You
Despite the Annie snubs of Toy Story 4, I suspect things will head back to Pixar with the Academy. Maybe it’s just because I didn’t really like Klaus – the lack of a likable lead ruined it a bit for me. I Lost My Body is an incredible artistic achievement, but the gaslighting narrative needs to be called out – it’s not okay. Missing Link and Dragon 3 are fine films, but surely not potential winners. Leaving the solidly enjoyable Toy Story 4.
Best Cinematography
Will win: 1917
Could win: Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood
Should win: The Lighthouse
If only… Atlantics
Roger Deakins. Remarkable work, but I’d much rather see the raw and expressive achievement of The Lighthouse recognised.
Best Editing
Will win: Ford V Ferrari
Could win: The Irishman
Should win: Parasite
If only… The Souvenir
If Parasite prevails here, then I think a best picture upset might be on the cards. It really could happen! Ford V Ferrari is a curious film – so traditional masculine but also not problematically toxic (see Joker and Once Upon a Time...) I struggle with why it is considered a frontrunner for this category, but then I remember Bohemian Rhapsody won this category last year and suspect maybe best editing is losing some of it’s prestige…
Best Production Design
Will win: Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood
Could win: 1917
Should win: Parasite
If only… A Hidden Life
This is another category that might indicate a 1917 sweep. I suspect the academy are going to be suckers for a nostalgic take on LA though.
Best Costume Design
Will win: Little Women
Could win: Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood
Should win: The Irishman
If only… Rocketman
Typical situation of this category recognising a period film with a lot of female costuming. Little Women does feature incredible costumes, but I think the achievement of The Irishman is pretty unbelievable.
Best Make-Up & Hair
Will win: Bombshell
Could win: Joker
Should win: 1917
If only… Dolemite Is My Name
Best Score
Will win: Joker
Could win: 1917
Should win: Marriage Story
If only… Us
The score for Joker is truly incredible.
Best Original Song
Will win: Rocketman
Could win: Harriet
Should win: Rocketman
If only… Wild Rose
Best Visual Effects
Will win: Avengers: Endgame
Could win: 1917
Should win: The Irishman
If only… Cats
I’ve gone back and forward here. 1917 might take it for being the best picture front runner, but it also feels likely that the achievement of the Marvel films might be acknowledged here. Cats is a joke.
Best Sound Editing
Will win: 1917
Could win: Ford V Ferrari
Should win: 1917
If only… The Lighthouse
Best Sound Mixing
Will win: 1917
Could win: Ford V Ferrari
Should win: Ad Astra
If only… Rocketman
Best Live Action Short
Will win: Brotherhood
Could win: The Neighbours’ Window
Best Animation Short
Will win: Hairlove
Could win: Kitbull
Best Documentary Short
Will win: Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone
Could win: St. Louis Superman
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