The Oscars increasingly function in a weird space in the film world, and yet here I am giving it oxygen (2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014). As usual: awards are silly – they mean nothing – now let’s get on with over-analysing them.
Best Picture
Will win: CODA
Could win: Power of the Dog
Should win: Drive My Car
If only… The Green Knight
Contender along with 2019 for the most disappointing best picture races in the past decade. My ballot would read: Drive My Car, The Power of the Dog, West Side Story, Dune, Licorice Pizza, CODA, King Richard, Nightmare Alley, Belfast. Would love to live in a world where I could add films like Titane, Annette, The Green Knight, Petit Maman, Shiva Baby, Zola, The Harder They Fall, Pig and any of the documentaries that have been in the conversation this year. I’ve succumbed to the populist pressure to consider CODA the front runner, but I would be far happier to be wrong and see The Power of the Dog crowned at the end of the night.
Best Director
Will win: Jane Campion (Power of the Dog)
Could win: Kenneth Branagh (Belfast)
Should win: Jane Campion (Power of the Dog)
If only… Maggie Gyllenhall (The Lost Daughter) / Julia Decournou (Titane)
Best Actress
Will win: Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye)
Could win: Olivia Coleman (The Lost Daughter)
Should win: Penelope Cruz (Parallel Mothers)
If only… Alan Haim (Licorice Pizza)
Best Actor
Will win: Will Smith (King Richard)
Could win: Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog)
Should win: Andrew Garfield (Tick, Tick… Boom)
If only… Stephen Graham (Boiling Point) / Nicholas Cage (Pig)
No performance here has got me terribly excited this year. Picking Garfield as should win is a stretch.
Best Supporting Actress
Will win: Ariana Debose (West Side Story)
Could win: Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog)
Should win: Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog)
If only… Ann Dowd (Mass) / Ruth Negga (Passing)
Ariana kills it in West Side Story and is thoroughly deserving, but if pushed it is Dunst who I’d prefer to take the honours this year.
Best Supporting Actor
Will win: Troy Kotsur (CODA)
Could win: Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)
Should win: Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)
If only… Jason Issacs (Mass)
Best Original Screenplay
Will win: Licorice Pizza
Could win: Belfast
Should win: The Worst Person in the World
If only… Parallel Mothers / Petit Maman
Could easily be Belfast. Either way the Academy will be awarding Branagh or Anderson – both who are seen as overdue for Oscar recognition.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will win: CODA
Could win: The Power of the Dog
Should win: The Power of the Dog
If only… The Green Knight
Here’s the first CODA upset. The late surge in support for the crowd pleaser is more likely to pay off here than in Best Picture, but it’s possible it will take home three Oscars from its three nominations.
Best International Picture
Will win: Drive My Car
Could win: The Worst Person in the World
Should win: Drive My Car
If only… Great Freedom
Best Documentary Feature
Will win: Summer of Soul (Or, When The Revolution Could Not Be Televised)
Could win: Flee
Should win: Summer of Soul (Or, When The Revolution Could Not Be Televised)
If only… The Velvet Underground
Incredibly strong line up for documentaries. Time to start talking about expanding this category. There are stronger documentaries in the shortlist that were not nominated than there were in the best picture films that were nominated.
Best Animated Feature
Will win: Encanto
Could win: The Mitchells vs. The Machines
Should win: Flee
If only… Cryptozoo
The Mitchells Vs The Machines should be taking this out, but unfortunately the inferior film has this thing about Bruno.
Best Cinematography
Will win: The Power of the Dog
Could win: Dune
Should win: The Power of the Dog
If only… The Green Knight / The French Dispatch / The Harder They Fall
I’m picking an upset here against the tide. While other categories like picture, screenplay and supporting actor have lost momentum for The Power of the Dog, I’m picking here that this might lead to a reverse tide for a technical catoegry or two which will still be dominated by Dune. This will also be the first female to win cinematography; Ari Wegner is deserving for the outstanding work on TPOTD.
Best Editing
Will win: Dune
Could win: King Richard
Should win: Tick, Tick…Boom!
If only… Summer of Soul (Or, When The Revolution Could Not Be Televised)
Another technical category where Dune could be dethroned. Would not be surprised to see King Richard here.
Best Production Design
Will win: Dune
Could win: Nightmare Alley
Should win: West Side Story
If only… The French Dispatch
Best Costume Design
Will win: Cruella
Could win: Dune
Should win: Cruella
If only… Spencer
Best Make-Up & Hair
Will win: The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Could win: Dune
Should win: Coming 2 America
If only… Cyrano
Best Score
Will win: Dune
Could win: The Power of the Dog
Should win: Parallel Mothers
If only… The Lost Daughter
Best Original Song
Will win: No Time to Die” – No Time to Die
Could win: “Dos Oruguitas” – Encanto
Should win: “No Time to Die” – No Time to Die
If only… “So May We Start” – Annette
Lin Manuel Miranda won’t have to wait too long for his EGOT, but I don’t think it will be this year. This year’s Bond song has been around for ages, but lots of people saw that film and the power of the song dropping in context after the pre-credits sequence is undeniable.
Best Visual Effects
Will win: Dune
Could win: Spider-Man: No Way Home
Should win: Dune
If only… The Matrix Resurrections
Best Sound
Will win: Dune
Could win: West Side Story
Should win: Dune
If only… The Harder They Fall
Best Live Action Short
Will win: ‘The Long Goodbye’
Could win: ‘Ala Kachuu: Take and Run’
Best Animation Short
Will win: ‘Robin Robin’
Could win: ‘The Windshield Wiper’
Best Documentary Short
Will win: ‘The Queen of Basketball’
Could win: ‘Audible’
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