Oscars 2024 – Thoughts & Predictions

In what seems to be the only remaining reason I use this blog – here’s my annual Oscar thoughts (2023, 2022, 20212020201920182017201620152014). As usual: awards are silly – now let’s take them really seriously.

Best Picture

Will win: Oppenheimer
Could win: The Holdovers
Should win: Anatomy of a Fall
If only… All of Us Strangers

I have a raised eyebrow every time I came across a critic or commentator referring to 2023 as a stellar year in film. There are certainly some highlights, but if these are the ten films that represent the year I’m pretty unimpressed. My ballot would read: Anatomy of a Fall, Killers of a Flower Moon, Poor Things, Past Lives, Oppenheimer, Barbie, American Fiction, The Holdovers, and Maestro. I’ve left The Zone of Interest out because after one viewing I’ve got such complicated feelings about I don’t know how to include it in a ranked ballot. Overall, I have thoughts about all these films and there perhaps only Anatomy of a Fall that I have unbridled passion for … but even then…

Best Director

Will win: Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)
Could win: Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things)
Should win: Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)
If only… Greta Gerwig (Barbie), Celine Song (Past Lives), A.V. Rockwell (A Thousand and One) or Kelly Fremon Craig (Are You There God? It’s Me Margaret)

Best Actress

Will win: Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Could win: Emma Stone (Poor Things)
Should win: Sandra Huller (Anatomy of a Fall)
If only… Natalie Portman (May December) or Julia Louis Dreyfus (You Hurt My Feelings)

Best Actor

Will win: Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)
Could win: Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers)
Should win: Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)
If only… Andrew Scott (All of Us Strangers)

Best Supporting Actress

Will win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
Could win: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer)
Should win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
If only… Julianne Moore (May December)

Best Supporting Actor

Will win: Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer)
Could win: Ryan Gosling (Barbie)
Should win: Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)
If only… Paul Mescal (All of Us Strangers)

Best Original Screenplay

Will win: Anatomy of a Fall
Could win: The Holdovers
Should win: May December
If only… You Hurt My Feelings

Best Adapted Screenplay

Will win: American Fiction
Could win: Barbie
Should win: Barbie
If only…  All of Us Strangers

Best International Picture

Will win: Zone of Interest
Could win: Society of the Snow
Should win: Perfect Days
If only… Fallen Leaves

Best Documentary Feature

Will win: 20 Days in Mariupol
Could win: Four Daughters
Should win: 20 Days in Mariupol
If only… Menus-Plaisirs – Les Troisgros

Best Animated Feature

Will win: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Could win: The Boy and the Heron
Should win: The Boy and the Heron
If only… Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem

Best Cinematography

Will win: Oppenheimer
Could win: Killers of the Flower Moon
Should win: El Conde
If only… Saltburn

Best Editing

Will win: Oppenheimer
Could win: Anatomy of a Fall
Should win: Anatomy of a Fall
If only… Passages

Best Production Design

Will win: Poor Things
Could win: Barbie
Should win: Poor Things
If only… Asteroid City

Best Costume Design

Will win: Barbie
Could win: Poor Things
Should win: Poor Things
If only… Wonka

Best Make-Up & Hair

Will win: Maestro
Could win: Poor Things
Should win: Poor Things
If only… Priscilla

Best Score

Will win: Oppenheimer
Could win: Killers of the Flower Moon
Should win: Oppenheimer
If only… Past Lives

Best Original Song

Will win: “What Was I Made For?” Barbie
Could win: “I’m Just Ken” Barbie
Should win: “What Was I Made For?” Barbie
If only… “Peaches” The Super Mario Bros

Best Visual Effects

Will win: Godzilla Minus One
Could win: The Creator
Should win: The Creator
If only… 

Best Sound

Will win: Zone of Interest
Could win: Oppenheimer
Should win: Zone of Interest
If only… Ferrari

Best Live Action Short

Will win: ‘The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar’
Could win: ‘The After’

Best Animation Short

Will win: ‘WAR IS OVER! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko’
Could win: ‘Letter to a Pig’

Best Documentary Short

Will win: ‘The ABCs of Book Banning’
Could win: ‘The Last Repair Shop’